RCEL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Avita Medical reported a full year 2025 revenue of approximately $71.6 million, which marks an 11% increase from the prior year's $64.3 million, indicating positive growth within the company's revised guidance range. The company's RECELL system has demonstrated clinical advantages, supported by a systematic review of 27 peer-reviewed studies that highlight better outcomes and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional burn treatment methods, making it well-suited for the U.S. inpatient burn market. Additionally, operational improvements and anticipated reimbursement approval from all seven Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs) by the end of November position Avita for enhanced growth in fiscal year 2026, as management focuses on stabilizing operations and advancing its clinical pipeline.

Avita Medical's stock outlook remains negative primarily due to significantly lowered revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025, now projected between $70 million and $74 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9% to 15%. Additionally, the company's ability to capture market share is hampered by a 20% reduction in demand for its RECELL system in the first half of fiscal 2025, with its top hospitals witnessing a $5 million drop in revenues. The persistent challenges with reimbursement from third-party payers and a limited capital position further exacerbate the risks associated with Avita's financial performance.