Redwire Corp (RDW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Redwire Corp demonstrated significant growth in its recent financial performance, with total sales rising by 50.7% year-over-year to $103.7 million in the third quarter of 2025. The company's strategic focus on enhancing gross and EBITDA margins through its Edge initiative and the anticipated positive effects of scaling operations and potential synergies highlight a pathway to improved profitability. Furthermore, with increasing optimism in the defense and space sectors, Redwire is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities, suggesting a constructive outlook for long-term revenue growth.

Redwire Corporation experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 30.9% following the release of its 2Q25 operating results, which indicated lower-than-expected revenue primarily due to unfavorable estimated at completion (EAC) adjustments totaling $25.2 million and resulting in a negative gross margin for the quarter. The company's revenue projections for 2025 were downgraded from $421.2 million to $410 million, compounded by an EBITDA loss of $27.4 million that contrasted sharply with the previously forecasted positive figure. Performance was severely impacted by delays in government contracting and higher operating expenses, exacerbated by one-time costs related to its acquisition of EdgeAutonomy, leading to a significant miss against market expectations.