SITE Stock Forecast & Price Target

SiteOne Landscape Supply is demonstrating resilience and growth potential, as evidenced by a projected EBITDA of $410 million for 2025, reflecting an increase of 1% year-over-year, along with a positive upward trend in EBITDA margins. The company's volume growth of 2% in the quarter and guidance for continued positive organic daily sales growth in the second half of the year indicates that it is successfully gaining market share within the green industry. Additionally, an improvement in organic daily sales growth for the fourth quarter to 2.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 1.5%, further underscores the optimistic outlook for SiteOne Landscape Supply's financial performance.

SiteOne Landscape Supply faces a negative outlook due to a revision in expected revenue growth for FY’26, which has decreased to 0.5% from a previous estimate of 1%, primarily driven by a weaker residential outlook. Additionally, the company's pricing environment is expected to remain subdued, with grass seed deflation projected at 10-20% year-over-year in the second half of the year, contributing to a largely flat annual pricing guide. Furthermore, an adjustment in the EBITDA guidance, which now ranges between $405-415 million – below market expectations – underscores the company's struggles in maintaining competitive pricing and volume growth in the highly competitive green industry.