SMPL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Simply Good Foods Co. is projected to achieve an 8.5% reported sales growth in FY25, driven by over 2% organic sales growth, primarily fueled by a significant 12% increase in the Quest brand. Although the Atkins brand is expected to experience a 12% decline, the overall positive growth trajectory is bolstered by the successful integration of the OWYN acquisition and anticipated improvements in Atkins performance in FY26. The company’s focus on protein-rich foods with low sugars and carbohydrates aligns well with consumer trends, further supporting a favorable outlook for its financial performance.

Simply Good Foods Co. faces challenges with a projected gross margin decline of 210 basis points to 36.9% for FY25, which raises concerns about profitability. Additionally, while the Quest brand is expected to grow by 11.5%, the Atkins brand is anticipated to decline by 14% due to losing ground in promotional activities and distribution. Overall, weakening velocity trends for Atkins suggest potential further distribution losses, contributing to a cautious outlook on the company's future financial performance.