Spotify (SPOT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Spotify Technology maintains a strong financial outlook, driven by its status as the leading global music streaming service with nearly 700 million monthly active users and over 250 million paying subscribers. The company's revenue primarily stems from its subscribers, who contribute significantly to its gross profit, and there is potential for increased monetization through audiobooks, supported by favorable market growth rates projected at 26% annually. Furthermore, anticipated growth in subscription average revenue per user (ARPU) and new opportunities in audiobook markets indicate a positive trajectory for the firm’s future financial performance.

Spotify Technology's stock outlook is negatively affected by several fundamental factors, including an estimated 0% deceleration in average revenue per user (ARPU) for the third quarter of 2025 and concerns over potentially inadequate margins despite previous price hikes. The firm faces significant risks, such as increasing content costs, declining negotiating leverage with record labels, and competition that could dilute streaming economics and hinder subscriber growth. Additionally, legal pressures from its audiobook offerings, currency exchange rate fluctuations, and potential challenges in its cost structure tied to Swedish laws further contribute to the negative outlook.