ShotSpotter (SSTI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SoundThinking Inc. is projected to experience a revenue growth of approximately 10%, alongside an anticipated adjusted EBITDA (AEBITDA) increase of nearly 50% over its previous record, indicating strong operational performance and efficiency. The company has successfully signed significantly more replacement recurring revenues than previously represented, with interim results showcasing record revenue and earnings, reflecting a recovery in valuation. Additionally, the introduction of the SafePointe passive screening service is expected to contribute approximately 5% to its annual organic revenue growth rate if it continues to gain traction, further bolstering the company's positive financial outlook.

SoundThinking Inc. experienced a 10% year-over-year decline in 4Q24 revenues, primarily due to the exit from the Chicago contract and a significant impact from late renewals. Although adjusted EBITDA remained near record highs, it fell short of expectations, coming in at $4.5 million—substantially less than the forecasted $6.2 million—due to over $1 million in above-trend costs. Additionally, the company's share price has declined by 70% from its 2021 highs, and it faces ongoing risks from a history of negative GAAP operating earnings.