TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TriCo Bancshares has demonstrated a notable increase in its loans held for investment (HFI), achieving an 8% growth on a last quarter annualized basis, driven by a 28% rise in originations and draws, totaling $458 million, which showcases the bank's robust lending capabilities despite experiencing higher payoffs. Additionally, core fees have also improved, rising 6.3% quarter-over-quarter to $17.1 million, indicating the bank's strong customer service performance and potential for steady revenue generation moving forward. The company has revised its earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 upward due to stronger net interest income, better fee performance, and controlled non-interest expenses, further solidifying a positive outlook on its financial health.

TriCo Bancshares faces a negative outlook due to potential impacts from an economic slowdown or recession, which could lead to increased nonperforming assets and net charge-offs, ultimately resulting in a shortfall in net income. Additionally, any decrease in interest rates could compress the company's net interest margin, negatively affecting net interest income and earnings projections. Furthermore, the company’s operational and financial risk may heighten due to acquisition activity, along with challenges posed by its market presence in economically distressed regions of Northern and Central California.