TE Stock Forecast & Price Target

T1 Energy Inc is strategically positioning itself in the solar market by forging supply agreements with key players such as Corning and Nextracker, which is expected to enhance its production capabilities and support anticipated growth in solar installations projected for 2026. The potential for significant revenue and EBITDA generation by 2025 is bolstered by rising US power demand and the increasing adoption of renewable energy, which could allow T1 Energy to capture IRA tax credits. Additionally, modest investments in diversifying the company’s supply chain by adding new module and cell plants are likely to enhance operational efficiency and capitalize on favorable market conditions.

T1 Energy Inc's financial outlook is negatively impacted by a significant reduction in EBITDA estimates for FY25 and FY26, with a 28% decrease to approximately $28 million and an 8% decrease to around $112 million, respectively, primarily due to tariff uncertainties affecting US module sales. The company's downside scenario highlights concerns regarding the ability to meet capacity goals on time and within budget, as a challenging financing environment hampers capital raising efforts, which could delay module production ramp-up. Additionally, competitive dynamics show that US module manufacturing capacity is expected to match anticipated demand, creating potential supply constraints, while continued delays in the construction of the cell plant and import component supply chain challenges further exacerbate T1 Energy's negative outlook.