Target (TGT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Target is positioned favorably within the retail sector, generating over $106 billion in sales for fiscal 2024 and operating nearly 2,000 stores across the United States. Approximately 30% of its revenue comes from private-label brands, indicating a strong customer loyalty and a robust product offering across key categories such as beauty, food, and apparel. Moreover, with plans to increase capital spending to $5 billion for FY'26, Target aims to enhance its physical store base and operational efficiency, further solidifying its competitive advantage against smaller market players.

Target's stock faces a negative outlook primarily due to declining in-store comparable sales, which were down 3.8%, along with a concerning deceleration in customer traffic, registering a 2.2% decrease year-over-year. The company's guidance for adjusted earnings per share for 2025 has been lowered to a range of $7 to $8, reflecting a deteriorating outlook in a volatile retail environment and stagnant digital sales growth, which stands at only 2.4%. Additionally, the penetration of the Target Circle Card has dropped approximately 80 basis points year-over-year, further indicating a weakening customer engagement and loyalty trend.