Target (TGT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Target has established itself as a leading discount retailer in the United States, operating nearly 2,000 stores and generating over $106 billion in sales for fiscal 2024. A significant portion of Target's revenue comes from a diverse product mix, with private-label brands contributing around 30% of total sales, and essential categories, such as beauty and household essentials, accounting for 30% of revenue. The company's commitment to a $1 billion annual investment since 2017, coupled with market share gains driven by scale benefits amid supply chain challenges for smaller competitors, positions Target favorably for future sales growth as it continues to capitalize on a recovering consumer spending environment.

Target is projected to experience a significant decline in comparable sales, with a forecast revision indicating a decrease of 4.0% for the third quarter, a substantial deterioration from earlier expectations of a 1.3% decline. This negative outlook is further compounded by a projected decrease in merchandise sales, estimated to fall to approximately $102 billion by the end of CY25, which represents a reduction from the $106 billion reported in fiscal 2024. The company's retail performance is attributed to challenges in merchandising innovation and a decreasing value proposition to consumers, alongside a broader slowdown in discretionary spending.