Tenet Healthcare (THC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tenet Healthcare demonstrated robust financial performance in the third quarter, reporting consolidated net operating revenue of $5.3 billion and a 12% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $1.1 billion, with margins improving to 20.8%. Growth in the hospital segment is evidenced by a 1.4% rise in adjusted admissions and a 5.9% increase in revenue per adjusted admission, supported by a favorable payor mix and high patient acuity, resulting in margin expansion to 15.1%. The company’s positive outlook is bolstered by strong demand indicators, ongoing improvements in operational efficiency, and a strategic focus on the higher-margin USPI segment, all contributing to an elevated revenue guidance and a favorable long-term growth trajectory.

Tenet Healthcare faces several fundamental challenges that contribute to a negative outlook for its stock. The company's recent EBITDA raise of $50 million in Q3 2025 was underwhelming, especially when compared to peers like HCA and UHS, indicating potential operational inefficiencies and an inability to match industry performance. Additionally, significant risks related to a leveraged balance sheet, reimbursement uncertainties due to reliance on government programs, and a concentrated geographic footprint further complicate Tenet's financial stability and long-term growth prospects.