TMCI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Treace Medical Concepts has experienced a 7% year-over-year increase in active surgeon users, reaching approximately 3,285, with an average utilization of around 9.3 kits per surgeon, indicating a solid foundation for revenue growth despite a decline in utilization rates. The company is well-positioned to enhance its margins and revenue potential through strategic initiatives such as increased direct-to-consumer programs, enhanced physician education, and an expanded sales force, as well as by addressing the competitive landscape with a broader product offering beyond its flagship Lapiplasty system. Additionally, there is potential for accelerated revenue growth driven by increased market demand, higher average selling prices, and greater surgeon utilization, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance moving forward.

Treace Medical Concepts is experiencing a significant revenue decline, with projected fourth-quarter revenue of $61.8 million reflecting approximately a 10% decrease year-over-year, despite the period being historically strong for bunion-related procedures. The company has revised its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance downward to between $211 million and $213 million, attributing this to headwinds faced by its Lapiplasty procedure and a slowdown in elective surgeries, which has led to an estimated 7% year-over-year decline in bunion procedure volumes. Furthermore, projections indicate negative year-over-year growth in 2026, suggesting that the company may face ongoing pressure on its market valuation, with a trading multiple expected to remain suppressed for an extended period.