TNDM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tandem Diabetes Care has demonstrated strong revenue resilience, with projected increases in 2026E revenue to $1.111 million and 2027E revenue to $1.229 million, indicating a positive growth trajectory. The company is expected to regain positive new patient start (NPS) growth in the US, driven by increased accessibility via pharmacy channels and growing adoption of new products like the Mobi pump. Despite a slight decline in new pump shipments, renewal shipments showed a modest increase, coupled with robust gross margins of 53.9%, underscoring a favorable financial outlook for the firm.

Tandem Diabetes Care has consistently faced substantial operating losses since its inception, raising significant concerns about its ability to achieve sustained profitability. Projections indicate a potential decline in new patient starts, with expectations for a year-over-year decrease of approximately 3% in 2025, compounding the risks posed by competitive pressures and challenges in securing advantageous pharmacy channel contracts. Despite some improvement in US pump shipments compared to estimates, a year-over-year decrease of 4% highlights the company's struggles with growth and profitability, as evidenced by lower margins and EBITDA compared to industry counterparts.