Trex (TREX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trex Co Inc has demonstrated a robust growth trajectory, with products launched within the last 36 months contributing 25% to trailing-twelve-month sales, reflecting strong consumer acceptance even amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions. The company’s management has indicated positive early indicators from refreshed marketing campaigns and investments, evidenced by improved website traffic and sample orders, as well as a reported 2%-3% growth in decking project activity among contractors. Furthermore, Trex is positioned for future revenue growth as it capitalizes on renovation market strength and wood conversion share gains, suggesting the potential for margin recoveries and sustained performance beyond the current downturn.

Trex Co Inc has significantly lowered its fiscal year 2025 sales guidance to flat growth, down from the previous expectation of a 5-7% increase, which highlights worsening market conditions. The company reported a decrease in gross margin to 41.0%, despite a year-over-year improvement, contributing to a disappointing EBITDA of $90 million, which fell short of prior forecasts. Additionally, Trex faces heightened competitive pressures and deteriorating consumer demand, leading to a projected 50% sequential decline in fourth quarter revenue, raising concerns about future market viability and profitability.