Trex (TREX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trex Co Inc has demonstrated a positive financial outlook, with products launched within the past 36 months now contributing 25% of trailing-twelve-month sales, indicating strong consumer acceptance despite broader market challenges. The company's refreshed marketing efforts and investments are yielding positive early indicators, such as increased website traffic and sample orders, and contractors report a 2%-3% growth in decking project activity in 2023. Although the fourth quarter may face challenges, Trex is expected to benefit from recovery in the renovations and remodeling market, improved operational efficiencies, and continuing market share gains, which align with a strong revenue growth trajectory in the coming years.

Trex Co Inc has significantly lowered its fiscal year 2025 sales guidance to flat growth compared to a prior expectation of 5-7% growth, reflecting deteriorating consumer demand and increasing channel destocking. Gross margin has also declined, with the latest reported figure at 41.0%, down 50 basis points quarter-over-quarter, and the company's adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to drop to between 28.0-28.5%, down from over 31%. Additionally, weaker market conditions have led to Trex's revenue falling 5% short of guidance, resulting in a sharp decline in share price and raising concerns about ongoing competition and market positioning.