Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Texas Roadhouse is viewed favorably because it combines industry-leading unit economics, sustained traffic outperformance, and a premium-quality dining proposition that resonates when consumers favor full-service value. Its FY25 average unit volumes of $8.7M, 2Q26 same-store sales of +6.2% with +3.0% traffic, and ~35 company-owned openings this year support a durable growth runway, while a full 2026 to 2028 pipeline underscores continued white-space expansion across Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers. Margin visibility also looks constructive as beef costs eased 5% in 3Q versus 1% inflation in 2Q, with further normalization possible if cattle supply stabilizes and border imports continue.

Texas Roadhouse is facing a negative setup because the late-August hoax and boycott chatter appear to have meaningfully hurt traffic, with shares down roughly 20% since late August and September traffic decelerating by about 500 bps versus August. Near-term fundamentals also look softer, as estimated 3Q26 same-store sales were cut to 5.4% from 6.5% and sit below consensus at 5.9%, while inflation, especially beef costs that make up almost half of the commodity basket, could squeeze margins or force price increases that hurt visits. Beyond that, the highly competitive casual dining backdrop, permitting and licensing delays, and the risk of capacity disruptions all threaten unit growth and the company’s ability to sustain operating momentum.