Velo3D Inc (VELO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Velo3D is benefiting from strong demand in aerospace, defense, and energy, where its metal additive manufacturing platform enables mission-critical parts with complex geometries that traditional methods struggle to produce. 2Q26 revenue rose 52.3% y/y to $20.7M, bookings were $29M, backlog was $31M, and cash and equivalents were $91.1M, while gross margin expanded to 21.5% from (11.7)% as higher ASPs, better mix, and improving utilization supported the model. The outlook is reinforced by RPS adoption, new customer programs transitioning into production, a $9.8M DoW contract, and the expansion of Forge 1, which together suggest more durable revenue, operating leverage, and a path toward positive adjusted EBITDA in 2H26.

Velo3D is challenged by persistent operating losses of $54.9 million in 2025 and $78.9 million in 2024, ongoing negative cash flow, and a continuing going-concern warning that raises financing risk and suggests the business may need repeated capital raises on unfavorable terms. The company’s dependence on a small customer base, including SpaceX contributing 23.0% of 2024 revenue, plus slower-than-expected adoption, long qualification cycles, and intense competition from better-funded rivals, limits visibility into durable growth and operating leverage. Its history of reverse stock splits, OTCQX migration, debt forbearance, internal control weaknesses, and a need for further dilution to fund working capital and R&D all point to a fragile balance sheet and execution profile.