Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. has demonstrated strong growth in its product lines, particularly with Fanapt, which experienced a 27% year-over-year increase in revenue for 2Q25, reaching $29.3 million, and a further 31% growth in 3Q25, suggesting an annual run-rate approaching $120 million. The introduction of Ponvory is showing promising potential, with new patient prescriptions reaching record highs and projections indicating gross sales could grow to $172.8 million by 2034, highlighting significant revenue expansion possibilities. Additionally, enhanced prescriber awareness programs and improved prescription metrics indicate an effective commercial strategy, setting a solid foundation for future growth across Vanda's portfolio.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc experienced a decline in net product sales, reporting $7.1 million in 2Q25, an 18% year-over-year decrease, despite a subsequent recovery with a 20% growth to $7 million in 3Q25. The erosion of exclusivity expected at the end of 2027 poses significant risks to the psychiatry franchise, particularly with the anticipated competitive pressures from the dual-indication approval of Bysanti expected in February 2026. Furthermore, promotional inactivity surrounding Ponvory has resulted in diminished prescriber awareness and market share losses, while systemic challenges, including regulatory setbacks and adverse developments, further heighten concerns regarding Vanda's future revenue and growth trajectory.