Weyerhaeuser (WY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Weyerhaeuser has raised its guidance for segment Adjusted EBITDA to approximately $390 million for FY25, an increase from the previous estimate of $350 million, indicating potential growth in operational performance. The company’s significant timberland holdings in favorable markets are likely to generate stable cash flows due to sustained demand for wood and paper products, complemented by expected improvements in lumber pricing driven by market conditions. Additionally, the acquisition of Plum Creek is expected to contribute an estimated $19 million in annual EBITDA/FCF over the next five years, significantly enhancing Weyerhaeuser's overall financial outlook.

Weyerhaeuser's financial outlook is negatively impacted by a substantial decline in its 2Q Wood Products EBITDA forecast, which drops from $180 million to $102 million, causing a reduction in the consolidated forecast from $399 million to $319 million. The company's net asset value (NAV) has decreased to $39 per share amidst an increase in net debt and lowered expectations for its Wood Products segment, which is projected to experience an EBITDA loss in 3Q25, the first such loss since 2011. Additionally, anticipated declines in earnings for Q425 and ongoing reductions in composite lumber prices highlight the challenging pricing environment and slower recovery in lumber realizations, further straining Weyerhaeuser's financial performance.